How do you calculate break-even on a bonus hunt?

Divide the money still needed (starting balance minus won so far) by the total stake of the bonuses you have not yet opened. The result is the average multiplier those bonuses need.

Why does break-even change during the hunt?

Because both halves of the fraction change as you open bonuses — the amount still needed falls with every win, and the unopened stake falls with every bonus opened.

Does a 100x always mean profit?

No. 100x is a convention for a good individual bonus, not a break-even point. A hunt with a break-even of 150x is still losing at an average of 100x.

Guide

Bonus hunt break-even, explained

Break-even is the average multiplier your remaining bonuses need to hit for the hunt to return its starting balance. Divide what you still need to win by the total stake still sitting in unopened bonuses.

5 min read · Updated 4 September 2026

The formula

Required average multiplier = (starting balance − won so far) ÷ (total stake of unopened bonuses).

At the start of the opening phase, nothing has been won, so it is simply the starting balance divided by the combined stake of every bonus collected.

A worked example

You spend $2,000 collecting 20 bonuses, all bought at $2. The unopened stake is 20 × $2 = $40. Break-even is $2,000 ÷ $40 = 50x. Every bonus needs to average 50x.

You open the first and it pays 800x — that is $1,600. Now you need $400 from 19 bonuses worth $38 of stake: $400 ÷ $38 = about 10.5x. One good bonus took the requirement from 50x to 10x.

Now suppose instead the first five all pay 3x. You have won $30 and need $1,970 from 15 bonuses worth $30: about 65x. The requirement has gone up, which is exactly why it is worth showing live.

Starting versus live

Show both. The starting figure is the one you announced and the one the room remembers; the live one is what the hunt currently needs. Replacing the first with the second mid-hunt is how a chat ends up arguing about what you originally said.

Mixed stakes

If bonuses were bought at different stakes, you cannot average multipliers directly — a 100x on a $0.20 bonus and a 100x on a $5 bonus are not the same amount of money. Work in stake-weighted terms: total the unopened stake, not the unopened count.

Frequently asked questions

How do you calculate break-even on a bonus hunt?: Divide the money still needed (starting balance minus won so far) by the total stake of the bonuses you have not yet opened. The result is the average multiplier those bonuses need.
Why does break-even change during the hunt?: Because both halves of the fraction change as you open bonuses — the amount still needed falls with every win, and the unopened stake falls with every bonus opened.
Does a 100x always mean profit?: No. 100x is a convention for a good individual bonus, not a break-even point. A hunt with a break-even of 150x is still losing at an average of 100x.

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